ADDRESS
by
at
ZONAL SEMINAR
on
"CONVERGENCE ”
on
23-24 February 2001
My greetings to the IETE
Fraternity and Fellow Professionals of Cochin. I have great pleasure addressing
this august gathering, and profound sorrow that I am doing so under the clouds
of a horrendous calamity that has visited Gujarat and the human suffering in
its wake, worse the ambience of helplessness, apathy, indifference and lack of
concern that prevails. It is but appropriate that I speak on convergence in the
light of recent happenings; hope and
despair, knowing and the fear of the unknown, and what appears in the
information media – complementary and critical. And pose the inevitable
question, have we, the engineering community done our bit?
It is my firm conviction
that electrotechnology has the answer to all our problems. Electrotechnology
has not only spawned digitization, networking, cybernetics and lately given us
the convergence mantra, but also shown us new ways of doing business,
conducting governance, improving quality of life, socializing, and of
significance managing crises and disasters.
As I said in my message, convergence or sangam as I prefer to call it, is a philosophy, a concept, and a basketful of emerging technologies all rolled in one. It has different facets. The Cochin centre’s choice of the “nice” sounding acronym ICE purveying synergy of Information, Communications and Entertainment is but one of them. Equally, perhaps more pertinent are others. A speaker at the recently concluded seminar “Convergence 2001” at Mhow mentioned that he had come across more than thirty definitions and technological expletives of the term while surfing on the Internet. In a network, convergence is relevant to the terminal domain, to the access domain, to the core transport domain and to the application/services domain. It is a confluence of audio, video and text; PC, telephone and TV; wireless and wireline; networks, systems and service providers; telecommunications, IT and broadcasting. It is engineering, structuring, provisioning and vending of multi-service content. A significant example of convergence is what the defence services refer as C3I which ipso facto purveys synergization, synchronization and harmonization of functions of command, control, communications and intelligence
There is yet another side of
this multi-faceted and multi-postured
convergence mission. It is diffusion of approaches at policy level to
tackle the mammoth problems that the country faces. Vittal identifies three
ways that we have experimented with to solve our problems, viz. political,
economic and social. The reorganization of states, the distribution of power
between the center and states, and the setting up of the third tier of the panchayat
raj are the attempts at solving our problems through political means. The
second was the Mahalobnis model with the dominance of the Nehruvian socialism,
of which the whole focus was on developing a command economy with the state
controlling the commanding heights. The third approach is through focusing on
areas of social justice based on the principles of sociology. All these have
produced mixed results. Yet the society continues to be beset by the economic
divide, the literacy divide, the gender divide and the ilk.
It is only now that a new
approach is ventured, a new paradigm is set, of seeking solutions through electrotechnology
or the infotechnology. The government has realized, though somewhat belatedly
and grudgingly, that the new approach, which per se is the instrument or
facilitator of convergence, holds a greater promise in solving the problems of
the country, intractable as they are through other methodologies when singly
applied.
Vittal avers imparting
information as the primary role of the Government – raison d’eter of governance. The other responsibilities, e.g.
national security, law and order and economic growth emanate from it. Mahajan
declares that the digital resolution is set to bring change, but ironically
exhorts the functionaries who sit in the North Bloc, Sanchar Bhawan and Shastri
Bhawan to realize the imperative, implying divergence of approach and
suggesting that the change can only be achieved if there is identity of
approach between his ministry and that of the Ministries of Finance,
Communications and Information and Broadcasting.
The new Millennium has brought new technologies and products that will, of certain, leave a lasting impact on the civilization in making. Of interest and quest are home networking, smaller and more powerful palm-sized devices, digital cameras and camcorders, MP3 devices, satellite and Internet radio, intelligent robot pets, high-speed, multi-protocol processors targeted at systems with throughput of 3G, even 4G bps and more. There would be a paradigm shift, dramatically changing the terminal equipment, access network, core transport network and application services domains. This calls for technology wizardry, an innovative ambience, entrepreneurial disposition, a spirit of grabbing opportunity, and customer orientation; summed up as synergy between technology and the market.
It would be wrong of me to
suggest that the digital economy of which every one sings paeans is a bed of
roses; far from it. We now face the menace of domain wars, portal wars, content
wars, hacker wars and cyber wars. These have sharpened the bite of the familiar
conventional, unconventional and proxy wars, and not so familiar, nuclear wars.
Then there are the Ess-abuses of the likes of spying, spoofing, sniffing,
spinning (spin doctoring), spamming, stalking etc. The technologies are
converging and unifying the techniques and the artifacts; the societies are
diverging and dividing the humans - herein lies the rub.
There are challenges ahead
for the engineering community. The commanding
influence of information revolution and the next generation technologies
is perceived in weakening of hierarchies
and strengthening of networks. Networking is the blueprint of the day. Networks
are scientific, more democratic by persuasion, in harmony with cultural
diversity and societal pluralism, and what is abundantly apparent now, the panacea
for managing disasters, resolving crises, compounding conflicts. Institutions
and enterprises that work like consortiums, alliances and confederations, keep
their communication channels open and take to distributed-decision-making, have
greater cohesion and survivability. Because their structures defy rigidity and
uniformity, they are receptive and adaptable to fresh ideas. Their information
channels are kept unclogged and exploit full potential of the available
information. It is this truism that has prompted us to bring a sea change
within the Institution in pursuance of a progressive and a dynamic agenda. We
have opted for greater empowerment of the centers, created task forces and forums, introduced decentralized
decision-making, larger participation of the intelligentsia in our
deliberations, and better rapport with the government departments, industry,
other engineering institutions and educational societies, social workers and
the Defence Services. We have readily, willingly and vigorously adopted all the
forward-looking plans of the Government: CEP-2010, Mass Computer Literacy
Programme, NORAD Scheme, Employment Generation Scheme. We are committed to the
principle that the information revolution is bound to erode hierarchies and
redraw the boundaries around which institutions and their offices are
built.
In the networked or
cybernetic world, systems, structures and typologies retain their identities.
It is only when they converge and get diffused that true merit of a system of
systems, a network of networks or a highway of highways is realized. However,
mindset is a drag and often fails to envision the whole, trained and initiated
as the mind is to doing things the hierarchical and piecemeal ways. How else
can one explain the existence of three ministries of Communications,
Information and Broadcasting and Information Technology? The Convergence Bill
has created yet another hierarchy, the Communication Commission of India (CCI).
One needs to study the battle royal
between the fixed service providers (FSPs) and the Cellular Operators
Association of India over WLL- based limited mobility vs the GSM - based cellular services to appreciate how money
can hold back technology.
There is another aspect of
cultural shift that I wish to dwell on. It is cultural decadence borne of
decline in value system, conflicts and intolerance. These are reflected in rise
of the menace of cyber crime, infraction, camweb, hacking, phreaking, lewdness,
infringement of privacy etc.
The prefix e has given new
gloss to business, to governance; to services, and to convergence.. But there
are detractions aplenty to match, even undo, the e-blessings. The above
notwithstanding, let there be no doubt that a new business culture is emerging,
where rules of the game are not the same as we have been accustomed to. What
worries me most is the drift of the business environment from an equitable,
technology-driven entrepreneurship to a new variety of cyber capitalism. It is
apparent from the buzz expressions that underscore the business strategies. It
pioneered with B to C (business to consumer); graduated to B to B (business to
business), then the progression (rather retrogression, if so fancied) P to P
(path to profitability); the latest is R to R (return to rationality). It is
the venture capital that settles the perch. Earlier it sought ideas – brave
ideas indeed, from the technology wizards; now it is back to Keynesian
philosophy basing decisions on the rationale of infrastructure, and what is
commonly referred as “bricks and mortar” with a view to taking the plunge.
Dotcom has taken a beating, today money is in e-learning, who knows what would
be in vogue tomorrow.
There is delicate balance
between giving free rein to the market's driving power and the demands of national
security, and the Chinese manage it pragmatically. Information networks are so
planned that they serve both the ‘market’ and the ‘battlefield’ It is this
convergence that lends a multiplier effect on both, the growth of the national
economy and the building of national resilience.. The converging technologies
are slated to impact all facets of human existence.
Of the shape of things to
come, I have picked on two -- the e-survival and e-learning. The first talks of
an integrated crisis management strategy and the second human resource
development strategy for India Both are topical.
.
The Times of India in its editorial on 30 Jan
2001, aptly titled, “Information Stone Age” mounted a scathing indictment on
the tardy ways of the Disaster Management Committee and the dismal performance
of the state owned AIR and Doordarshan. It opined, “The key word then is
communication. The quicker news travels, the greater the chance of saving human
lives as well as restoring order. But so used is the government in taking its
own time that this rarely if at all happens. We saw the same failure during the
Orissa cyclone and the aftermath of Kandhar hijack. That this should be the
state of affairs at a time India is believed to have moved firmly into the
Information Age underscores the gap between reality and rhetoric.”
One
thought that the days of the hierarchies, which in the past relied on
structured information flow and preened on tight control of operations, are
over. But Gujarat has belied all that. Disaster Management Committee is a
glaring example, so is the local administration. Look at the problems that
these hierarchies have wrought in the wake of destruction – alarm, dread, worry
and loss of self confidence. Prediction and divination are favourite pastimes Rumour mill is working overtime. The
clairvoyance vendors are having a hay day. Gujarat is negation of the very
concept of
convergence or the e-society in making.
For the last fortnight I
have been toying with a number of ideas that may emerge viable. I request the
cognoscenti that gather here to mull over them and further the ones that hold
merit and that show promise:
·
Sensors endowed rescue. The
imperative that rescuers will be more valuable when they are equipped with
sensors that sense through water, concrete, ruble and debris in the devastated
area.
·
Information carousel. The imperative that information is the main
ingredient of rescue work, for survival, for succour, for medical help. For
sustaining moral and national pride. The information should not only be
available gratis and on demand, but also be open, widely disseminated to all in
real time and voluntarily contributed by all, that too in real time. Achieved
by:
Ø Network. The imperative that a
network solution ensures economy ofeffort and concentration of resources at the
point of impact. The network that is visualized is between sensing, monitoring,
tracking, damage control and rescuing.
Ø Resource Management. The
imperative
Ø “Franchised combat units -
the idea that communications permit the efficient organization of smaller, more
numerous and autonomous units, each with a span of control defined by its
maximum weapons range.”
Ø “An Army of armies - the
idea that the changing tasks of the Army may call for differently organized,
trained and equipped units rather than ‘one-soldier-fits-all’ tasking.”
Of the emerging
technologies, it is the seamless integration of wireless and wireline, the
mobile Internet or the wireless Internet that offer immense possibilities . I
hope one day Blue Tooth and WLL will replace the crisscrossing cables in the
BUILDINGS , time consuming as the process is in laying, ugly spectacle that
these present, and highly damage prone and vulnerable as they are.. I hope one
day the rescue operators would voice control the operations with a full-range
of video conferencing from a tiny cellular or mobile in his pocket and that too
much beyond the ranges that could ever be imagined. I hope one day a rescue
operator would have a LAN on his vest, integrating night vision, Blue tooth,
laser range , video camera, Global Positioning System (GPS) and communication.
I hope one day the rescue leaders can voice control the operation. I hope the
child who lies under the mulba could carry an electronic leash. I hope he can
whisper and cry in Malayalam and not asked to learn English before rescue and
succour can reach him. I hope news – that is information and not disinformation
about our kith and kin is as fast in reaching us as that coveted by the
politician about their election results.
These sensors could be
controlled through Blue tooth for instance. It offers immense possibilities. It
is an open specification for wireless communications of data and voice over
short range radio, It operates at an unlicensed ISM band at 2.4 GHz. It
supports non-line-of-sight transmissions which can penetrate through concrete. It is low priced may just
cost 5 dollars. Piconet is a collection of devices; up to 8 devices could be
connected.. Independent and non synchronized piconets form a scatternet.
As 3G approaches, the mobile
device, all rolled in one, will become a PDA for the executive to manage
businesses, for the commander to manage battle – a C2 facilitator, for a rescue
leader to provide relief, for a scientist at remote sensing center to reach out
to the farmer. It was Victor Hugo who said that nothing is more powerful
than an idea whose time had come. The time for 3G has come and so has it for
4G, the former to adopt, and the latter to conceptualize.
The converging technologies
will push solutions, and inevitably some problems too, e.g. spectrum management
and EMI. One year ago, a passenger plane crashed in Switzerland and ten people
died. Investigators now opine that the most likely cause was a call from a
mobile phone. Imagine that phone to be WAP enabled or the Japanese i-mode or
the Ericson’s tiny GPRF designed to trigger a logic pulse. It makes the
question, do we allow cell phones in the Valley, sound dumb.
Now let me deal with the
second issue, that of impact of convergence on e-learning. A truism that often
escapes us, is that most learning is incidental not deliberately planned,
people learn without being aware of what is being learned and learn without
being taught.
Most learning comes from data fusion. When the sensors
capture data, an A to D conversion takes place at the myriad of processors that
the body is endowed with. The data travels digitally from neuron to neuron to
the highest seat of learning, the cerebrum where there is convergence. Take
vision for instance. Philippe Boumard in his famous essay, “From InfoWar to
Knowledge Warfare: Preparing for the Paradigm Shift” writes that “neurons that participate in the building of
vision only account for 20% from the eyes' retinas, whereas 80% of them come from
other parts of the brain. In other words, 80% of our vision is internally
constructed. Vision is mostly knowledge, not information. Furthermore, this
knowledge is mostly tacit; it escapes our individual or collective awareness.”
He further states that "mapping, as an act of vision, is mostly derived
from these 80% of neurons, in our brains and not in our retinas, that
participate in the construction of images, and help us to transform noticed and
unnoticed stimuli into sense-making.”
Converging technologies help in e-learning, based on three operatives that of multimedia content, interactivity and “knowledge on demand.” Convergence directs panorama of ‘collective knowledge drills’ and ‘matches of wits’.
Conceptually, teachers and students can share materials in cyberspace with students learning in a self-directed manner under the supervision of an educational system or teacher. Internet6 2 foresses tools that would make it easy to create learning ware or courseware, using existing technologies, Internet2 may also help realize the instructional Management System (IMS) a standard process for using the Internet in developing and delivering learning packages and tracking outcomes. One can think of the IMS asa more structured way to exploit the potential learning materials on the Web. .
Charles Dickens begins his
masterpiece, A Tale of Two Cities,
”It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” and ends the paragraph,
“It was like any other times.” Precisely the same is true now. It is the best
of times, it is the worst of times, --- it is like any other times. But then
there is a paradigm change sired by technology – IT, Telecom, and broadcasting
and their convergence which now sits at the driver’s seat. It is unlikely that
it will be edged out
.